Insight
is our reward

Publications in Economics & Business by NOMIS researchers

Jobs increasingly require good decision-making. Workers are valued not only for how much they can do, but also for their ability to decide what to do. In this paper we develop a theory and measurement paradigm for assessing individual variation in the ability to make good decisions about resource allocation, which we call allocative skill. We begin with a model where agents strategically acquire information about factor productivity under time and effort constraints. Conditional on such constraints, agents’ allocative skill can be defined as the marginal product of their attention. We test our model in a field survey where participants act as managers assigning fictional workers with heterogeneous productivity schedules to job tasks and are paid in proportion to output. Allocative skill strongly predicts full-time labor earnings, even conditional on IQ, numeracy, and education, and the return to allocative skill is greater in decision-intensive occupations.

Research field(s)
Economics

NOMIS Researcher(s)

December 9, 2022

We provide an axiomatic characterization of Bayesian updating, viewed as a mapping from prior beliefs and new information to posteriors, which is disentangled from any reference to preferences. Bayesian updating is characterized by Non-Innovativeness (events considered impossible in the prior remain impossible in the posterior), Dropping (events contradicted by new evidence are considered impossible in the posterior), and Proportionality (for other events, the posterior simply rescales the prior’s probabilities proportionally). The result clarifies the differences between the normative Bayesian benchmark, alternative models, and actual human behavior.

Research field(s)
Economics