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Publications in Conservation Biology by NOMIS researchers

Predicting climate-change impacts on the global glacier-fed stream microbiome

NOMIS Researcher(s)

Published in

February 1, 2025

The shrinkage of glaciers and the vanishing of glacier-fed streams (GFSs) are emblematic of climate change. However, forecasts of how GFS microbiome structure and function will change under projected climate change scenarios are lacking. Combining 2,333 prokaryotic metagenome-assembled genomes with climatic, glaciological, and environmental data collected by the Vanishing Glaciers project from 164 GFSs draining Earth’s major mountain ranges, we here predict the future of the GFS microbiome until the end of the century under various climate change scenarios. Our model framework is rooted in a space-for-time substitution design and leverages statistical learning approaches. We predict that declining environmental selection promotes primary production in GFSs, stimulating both bacterial biomass and biodiversity. Concomitantly, predictions suggest that the phylogenetic structure of the GFS microbiome will change and entire bacterial clades are at risk. Furthermore, genomic projections reveal that microbiome functions will shift, with intensified solar energy acquisition pathways, heterotrophy and algal-bacterial interactions. Altogether, we project a ‘greener’ future of the world’s GFSs accompanied by a loss of clades that have adapted to environmental harshness, with consequences for ecosystem functioning.

Research field(s)
Conservation Biology, Ecology, Environmental Sciences

DOI
10.1038/s41467-025-56426-4

Tropical forest clearance impacts biodiversity and function, whereas logging changes structure

NOMIS Researcher(s)

Published in

January 9, 2025

The impacts of degradation and deforestation on tropical forests are poorly understood, particularly at landscape scales. We present an extensive ecosystem analysis of the impacts of logging and conversion of tropical forest to oil palm from a large-scale study in Borneo, synthesizing responses from 82 variables categorized into four ecological levels spanning a broad suite of ecosystem properties: (i) structure and environment, (ii) species traits, (iii) biodiversity, and (iv) ecosystem functions. Responses were highly heterogeneous and often complex and nonlinear. Variables that were directly impacted by the physical process of timber extraction, such as soil structure, were sensitive to even moderate amounts of logging, whereas measures of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning were generally resilient to logging but more affected by conversion to oil palm plantation.

Research field(s)
Conservation Biology, Forestry, Ecology, Environmental Sciences

DOI
10.1126/science.adf9856

Gradients of Deposition and In Situ Production Drive Global Glacier Organic Matter Composition

NOMIS Researcher(s)

Published in

September 19, 2024

Runoff from rapidly melting mountain glaciers is a dominant source of riverine organic carbon in many high-latitude and high-elevation regions. Glacier dissolved organic carbon is highly bioavailable, and its composition likely reflects internal (e.g., autotrophic production) and external (i.e., atmospheric deposition) sources. However, the balance of these sources across Earth’s glaciers is poorly understood, despite implications for the mineralization and assimilation of glacier organic carbon within recipient ecosystems. We assessed the molecular-level composition of dissolved organic matter from 136 mountain glacier outflows from 11 regions covering six continents using ultrahigh resolution 21 T mass spectrometry. We found substantial diversity in organic matter composition with coherent and predictable (80% accuracy) regional patterns. Employing stable and radiocarbon isotopic analyses, we demonstrate that these patterns are inherently linked to atmospheric deposition and in situ production. In remote regions like Greenland and New Zealand, the glacier organic matter pool appears to be dominated by in situ production. However, downwind of industrial centers (e.g., Alaska and Nepal), fossil fuel combustion byproducts likely underpin organic matter composition, resulting in older and more aromatic material being exported downstream. These findings highlight that the glacier carbon cycle is spatially distinct, with ramifications for predicting the dynamics and fate of glacier organic carbon concurrent with continued retreat and anthropogenic perturbation.

Research field(s)
Conservation Biology, Biology

DOI
10.1029/2024GB008212

Thresholds for adding degraded tropical forest to the conservation estate

NOMIS Researcher(s)

Published in

July 17, 2024

Logged and disturbed forests are often viewed as degraded and depauperate environments compared with primary forest. However, they are dynamic ecosystems1 that provide refugia for large amounts of biodiversity2,3, so we cannot afford to underestimate their conservation value4. Here we present empirically defined thresholds for categorizing the conservation value of logged forests, using one of the most comprehensive assessments of taxon responses to habitat degradation in any tropical forest environment. We analysed the impact of logging intensity on the individual occurrence patterns of 1,681 taxa belonging to 86 taxonomic orders and 126 functional groups in Sabah, Malaysia. Our results demonstrate the existence of two conservation-relevant thresholds. First, lightly logged forests (<29% biomass removal) retain high conservation value and a largely intact functional composition, and are therefore likely to recover their pre-logging values if allowed to undergo natural regeneration. Second, the most extreme impacts occur in heavily degraded forests with more than two-thirds (>68%) of their biomass removed, and these are likely to require more expensive measures to recover their biodiversity value. Overall, our data confirm that primary forests are irreplaceable5, but they also reinforce the message that logged forests retain considerable conservation value that should not be overlooked.

Research field(s)
Forestry, Conservation Biology, Ecology, Environmental Sciences

DOI
10.1038/s41586-024-07657-w

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