Insight
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NOMIS Insights

Research is the vital expression of humankind’s most important qualities: curiosity and imagination.

Explorers, inventors, pioneers—dedicated researchers on the frontiers of science and the humanities.

Insight, when it comes, changes everything.

Publications

The NOMIS community of researchers and partners is instrumental in driving interdisciplinary collaboration, generating insights and ultimately advancing our understanding of the world. A key component of these efforts is knowledge sharing. Comprising a unique offering of engaging scientific lectures, insightful films about our awardees’ research, and a comprehensive publication database, NOMIS Insights are designed to facilitate the sharing of knowledge. They showcase the groundbreaking findings and innovative perspectives born from NOMIS-supported research endeavors, embodying our dedication to enabling scientific progress.

Our NOMIS Insight database provides a comprehensive source of all publications resulting from NOMIS-supported research projects.

NOMIS Researcher(s)

July 31, 2023

Supervised learning typically focuses on learning transferable representations from training examples annotated by humans. While rich annotations (like soft labels) carry more information than sparse annotations (like hard labels), they are also more expensive to collect. For example, while hard labels only provide information about the closest class an object belongs to (e.g., “this is a dog”), soft labels provide information about the object’s relationship with multiple classes (e.g., “this is most likely a dog, but it could also be a wolf or a coyote”). We use information theory to compare how a number of commonly-used supervision signals contribute to representation-learning performance, as well as how their capacity is affected by factors such as the number of labels, classes, dimensions, and noise. Our framework provides theoretical justification for using hard labels in the big-data regime, but richer supervision signals for few-shot learning and out-of-distribution generalization. We validate these results empirically in a series of experiments with over 1 million crowdsourced image annotations and conduct a cost-benefit analysis to establish a tradeoff curve that enables users to optimize the cost of supervising representation learning on their own datasets. © UAI 2023. All rights reserved.

Research field(s)
Health Sciences, Biomedical Research, Developmental Biology

NOMIS Researcher(s)

Published in

July 20, 2023

Non-membrane-bound biomolecular condensates have been proposed to represent an important mode of subcellular organization in diverse biological settings. However, the fundamental principles governing the spatial organization and dynamics of condensates at the atomistic level remain unclear. The Saccharomyces cerevisiae Lge1 protein is required for histone H2B ubiquitination and its N-terminal intrinsically disordered fragment (Lge11-80) undergoes robust phase separation. This study connects single-and multi-chain all-atom molecular dynamics simulations of Lge11-80 with the in vitro behavior of Lge11-80 condensates. Analysis of modeled protein-protein interactions elucidates the key determinants of Lge11-80 condensate formation and links configurational entropy, valency, and compactness of proteins inside the condensates. A newly derived analytical formalism, related to colloid fractal cluster formation, describes condensate architecture across length scales as a function of protein valency and compactness. In particular, the formalism provides an atomisti-cally resolved model of Lge11-80 condensates on the scale of hundreds of nanometers starting from individual protein conformers captured in simulations. The simulation-derived fractal dimensions of condensates of Lge11-80 and its mutants agree with their in vitro morphologies. The presented framework enables a multiscale description of biomolecular condensates and embeds their study in a wider context of colloid self-organization. © Polyansky, Gallego et al.

Research field(s)
Natural Sciences

NOMIS Researcher(s)

Published in

July 20, 2023

A growing body of research has shown that simple choices involve the construction and comparison of values at the time of decision. These processes are modulated by attention in a way that leaves decision makers susceptible to attentional biases. Here, we studied the role of peripheral visual information on the choice process and on attentional choice biases. We used an eye-tracking experiment in which participants (N = 50 adults) made binary choices between food items that were displayed in marked screen “shelves” in two conditions: (a) where both items were displayed, and (b) where items were displayed only when participants fixated within their shelves. We found that removing the nonfixated option approximately doubled the size of the attentional biases. The results show that peripheral visual information is crucial in facilitating good decisions and suggest that individuals might be influenceable by settings in which only one item is shown at a time, such as e-commerce. © The Author(s) 2023.

Research field(s)
Health Sciences, Psychology & Cognitive Sciences, Experimental Psychology

NOMIS Researcher(s)

Published in

July 20, 2023

Homology-directed repair (HDR), a method for repair of DNA double-stranded breaks can be leveraged for the precise introduction of mutations supplied by synthetic DNA donors, but remains limited by low efficiency and off-target effects. In this study, we report HDRobust, a high-precision method that, via the combined transient inhibition of nonhomologous end joining and microhomology-mediated end joining, resulted in the induction of point mutations by HDR in up to 93% (median 60%, s.e.m. 3) of chromosomes in populations of cells. We found that, using this method, insertions, deletions and rearrangements at the target site, as well as unintended changes at other genomic sites, were largely abolished. We validated this approach for 58 different target sites and showed that it allows efficient correction of pathogenic mutations in cells derived from patients suffering from anemia, sickle cell disease and thrombophilia. © 2023, The Author(s).

Research field(s)
Health Sciences, Biomedical Research, Developmental Biology

NOMIS Researcher(s)

July 11, 2023

Cytoplasmic aggregation and concomitant nuclear clearance of the RNA-binding protein TDP-43 are found in ~ 90% of cases of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and ~ 45% of patients living with frontotemporal lobar degeneration, but no disease-modifying therapy is available. Antibody therapy targeting other aggregating proteins associated with neurodegenerative disorders has shown beneficial effects in animal models and clinical trials. The most effective epitopes for safe antibody therapy targeting TDP-43 are unknown. Here, we identified safe and effective epitopes in TDP-43 for active and potential future passive immunotherapy. We prescreened 15 peptide antigens covering all regions of TDP-43 to identify the most immunogenic epitopes and to raise novel monoclonal antibodies in wild-type mice. Most peptides induced a considerable antibody response and no antigen triggered obvious side effects. Thus, we immunized mice with rapidly progressing TDP-43 proteinopathy (“rNLS8” model) with the nine most immunogenic peptides in five pools prior to TDP-43ΔNLS transgene induction. Strikingly, combined administration of two N-terminal peptides induced genetic background-specific sudden lethality in several mice and was therefore discontinued. Despite a strong antibody response, no TDP-43 peptide prevented the rapid body weight loss or reduced phospho-TDP-43 levels as well as the profound astrogliosis and microgliosis in rNLS8 mice. However, immunization with a C-terminal peptide containing the disease-associated phospho-serines 409/410 significantly lowered serum neurofilament light chain levels, indicative of reduced neuroaxonal damage. Transcriptomic profiling showed a pronounced neuroinflammatory signature (IL-1β, TNF-α, NfκB) in rNLS8 mice and suggested modest benefits of immunization targeting the glycine-rich region. Several novel monoclonal antibodies targeting the glycine-rich domain potently reduced phase separation and aggregation of TDP-43 in vitro and prevented cellular uptake of preformed aggregates. Our unbiased screen suggests that targeting the RRM2 domain and the C-terminal region of TDP-43 by active or passive immunization may be beneficial in TDP-43 proteinopathies by inhibiting cardinal processes of disease progression. Graphical Abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]. © 2023, The Author(s).

Research field(s)
Health Sciences, Clinical Medicine, Neurology & Neurosurgery

NOMIS Researcher(s)

Published in

July 10, 2023

Whole-body imaging techniques play a vital role in exploring the interplay of physiological systems in maintaining health and driving disease. We introduce wildDISCO, a new approach for whole-body immunolabeling, optical clearing and imaging in mice, circumventing the need for transgenic reporter animals or nanobody labeling and so overcoming existing technical limitations. We identified heptakis(2,6-di-O-methyl)-β-cyclodextrin as a potent enhancer of cholesterol extraction and membrane permeabilization, enabling deep, homogeneous penetration of standard antibodies without aggregation. WildDISCO facilitates imaging of peripheral nervous systems, lymphatic vessels and immune cells in whole mice at cellular resolution by labeling diverse endogenous proteins. Additionally, we examined rare proliferating cells and the effects of biological perturbations, as demonstrated in germ-free mice. We applied wildDISCO to map tertiary lymphoid structures in the context of breast cancer, considering both primary tumor and metastases throughout the mouse body. An atlas of high-resolution images showcasing mouse nervous, lymphatic and vascular systems is accessible at http://discotechnologies.org/wildDISCO/atlas/index.php . © 2023, The Author(s).

Research field(s)
Applied Sciences, Enabling & Strategic Technologies, Biotechnology

NOMIS Researcher(s)

Published in

July 5, 2023

Currently available quantum processors are dominated by noise, which severely limits their applicability and motivates the search for new physical qubit encodings. In this work, we introduce the inductively shunted transmon, a weakly flux-tunable superconducting qubit that offers charge offset protection for all levels and a 20-fold reduction in flux dispersion compared to the state-of-the-art resulting in a constant coherence over a full flux quantum. The parabolic confinement provided by the inductive shunt as well as the linearity of the geometric superinductor facilitates a high-power readout that resolves quantum jumps with a fidelity and QND-ness of >90% and without the need for a Josephson parametric amplifier. Moreover, the device reveals quantum tunneling physics between the two prepared fluxon ground states with a measured average decay time of up to 3.5 h. In the future, fast time-domain control of the transition matrix elements could offer a new path forward to also achieve full qubit control in the decay-protected fluxon basis. © 2023, The Author(s).

Research field(s)
Natural Sciences, Physics & Astronomy, General Physics

NOMIS Researcher(s)

Published in

June 29, 2023

Chromosomes in the eukaryotic nucleus are highly compacted. However, for many functional processes, including transcription initiation, the pairwise motion of distal chromosomal elements such as enhancers and promoters is essential and necessitates dynamic fluidity. Here, we used a live-imaging assay to simultaneously measure the positions of pairs of enhancers and promoters and their transcriptional output while systematically varying the genomic separation between these two DNA loci. Our analysis reveals the coexistence of a compact globular organization and fast subdiffusive dynamics. These combined features cause an anomalous scaling of polymer relaxation times with genomic separation leading to long-ranged correlations. Thus, encounter times of DNA loci are much less dependent on genomic distance than predicted by existing polymer models, with potential consequences for eukaryotic gene expression. © 2023 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.

Research field(s)
Health Sciences, Biomedical Research, Developmental Biology

NOMIS Researcher(s)

June 29, 2023

Aims: Psychotic symptoms are increasingly recognized as a distinguishing clinical feature in patients with dementia due to frontotemporal lobar degeneration with TDP-43 pathology (FTLD-TDP). Within this group, carriers of the C9orf72 repeat expansion are particularly prone to develop delusions and hallucinations. Methods: The present retrospective study sought to provide novel details about the relationship between FTLD-TDP pathology and the presence of psychotic symptoms during life. Results: We found that FTLD-TDP subtype B was more frequent in patients with psychotic symptoms than in those without. This relationship was present even when corrected for the presence of C9orf72 mutation, suggesting that pathophysiological processes leading to the development of subtype B pathology may increase the risk of psychotic symptoms. Within the group of FTLD-TDP cases with subtype B pathology, psychotic symptoms tended to be associated with a greater burden of TDP-43 pathology in the white matter and a lower burden in lower motor neurons. When present, pathological involvement of motor neurons was more likely to be asymptomatic in patients with psychosis. Conclusions: This work suggests that psychotic symptoms in patients with FTLD-TDP tend to be associated with subtype B pathology. This relationship is not completely explained by the effects of the C9orf72 mutation and raises the possibility of a direct link between psychotic symptoms and this particular pattern of TDP-43 pathology. © 2023 The Authors. Neuropathology and Applied Neurobiology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Neuropathological Society.

Research field(s)
Health Sciences, Biomedical Research, Biochemistry & Molecular Biology

NOMIS Researcher(s)

Published in

June 27, 2023

The human embryo undergoes morphogenetic transformations following implantation into the uterus, but our knowledge of this crucial stage is limited by the inability to observe the embryo in vivo. Models of the embryo derived from stem cells are important tools for interrogating developmental events and tissue–tissue crosstalk during these stages 1. Here we establish a model of the human post-implantation embryo, a human embryoid, comprising embryonic and extraembryonic tissues. We combine two types of extraembryonic-like cell generated by overexpression of transcription factors with wild-type embryonic stem cells and promote their self-organization into structures that mimic several aspects of the post-implantation human embryo. These self-organized aggregates contain a pluripotent epiblast-like domain surrounded by extraembryonic-like tissues. Our functional studies demonstrate that the epiblast-like domain robustly differentiates into amnion, extraembryonic mesenchyme and primordial germ cell-like cells in response to bone morphogenetic protein cues. In addition, we identify an inhibitory role for SOX17 in the specification of anterior hypoblast-like cells 2. Modulation of the subpopulations in the hypoblast-like compartment demonstrates that extraembryonic-like cells influence epiblast-like domain differentiation, highlighting functional tissue–tissue crosstalk. In conclusion, we present a modular, tractable, integrated 3 model of the human embryo that will enable us to probe key questions of human post-implantation development, a critical window during which substantial numbers of pregnancies fail. © 2023, The Author(s).

Research field(s)
Health Sciences, Psychology & Cognitive Sciences, Experimental Psychology

NOMIS Researcher(s)

June 24, 2023

Purpose: Whilst survival in paediatric critical care has improved, clinicians lack tools capable of predicting long-term outcomes. We developed a machine learning model to predict poor school outcomes in children surviving intensive care unit (ICU). Methods: Population-based study of children < 16 years requiring ICU admission in Queensland, Australia, between 1997 and 2019. Failure to meet the National Minimum Standard (NMS) in the National Assessment Program-Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) assessment during primary and secondary school was the primary outcome. Routine ICU information was used to train machine learning classifiers. Models were trained, validated and tested using stratified nested cross-validation. Results: 13,957 childhood ICU survivors with 37,200 corresponding NAPLAN tests after a median follow-up duration of 6 years were included. 14.7%, 17%, 15.6% and 16.6% failed to meet NMS in school grades 3, 5, 7 and 9. The model demonstrated an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.8 (standard deviation SD, 0.01), with 51% specificity to reach 85% sensitivity [relative Area Under the Precision Recall Curve (rel-AUPRC) 3.42, SD 0.06]. Socio-economic status, illness severity, and neurological, congenital, and genetic disorders contributed most to the predictions. In children with no comorbidities admitted between 2009 and 2019, the model achieved a AUROC of 0.77 (SD 0.03) and a rel-AUPRC of 3.31 (SD 0.42). Conclusions: A machine learning model using data available at time of ICU discharge predicted failure to meet minimum educational requirements at school age. Implementation of this prediction tool could assist in prioritizing patients for follow-up and targeting of rehabilitative measures. © 2023, The Author(s).

Research field(s)
Health Sciences, Clinical Medicine, Emergency & Critical Care Medicine

NOMIS Researcher(s)

June 15, 2023

The progressive accumulation of insoluble aggregates of the presynaptic protein alpha-synuclein (α-Syn) is a hallmark of neurodegenerative disorders including Parkinson’s disease (PD), Multiple System Atrophy, and Dementia with Lewy Bodies, commonly referred to as synucleinopathies. Despite considerable progress on the structural biology of these aggregates, the molecular mechanisms mediating their cell-to-cell transmission, propagation, and neurotoxicity remain only partially understood. Numerous studies have highlighted the stereotypical spatiotemporal spreading of pathological α-Syn aggregates across different tissues and anatomically connected brain regions over time. Experimental evidence from various cellular and animal models indicate that α-Syn transfer occurs in two defined steps: the release of pathogenic α-Syn species from infected cells, and their uptake via passive or active endocytic pathways. Once α-Syn aggregates have been internalized, little is known about what drives their toxicity or how they interact with the endogenous protein to promote its misfolding and subsequent aggregation. Similarly, unknown genetic factors modulate different cellular responses to the aggregation and accumulation of pathogenic α-Syn species. Here we discuss the current understanding of the molecular phenomena associated with the intercellular spreading of pathogenic α-Syn seeds and summarize the evidence supporting the transmission hypothesis. Understanding the molecular mechanisms involved in α-Syn aggregates transmission is essential to develop novel targeted therapeutics against PD and related synucleinopathies. © 2022 The Author(s)

Research field(s)
Health Sciences, Biomedical Research, Biochemistry & Molecular Biology

NOMIS Researcher(s)

Published in

June 14, 2023

We study ab initio approaches for calculating x-ray Thomson scattering spectra from density functional theory molecular dynamics simulations based on a modified Chihara formula that expresses the inelastic contribution in terms of the dielectric function. We study the electronic dynamic structure factor computed from the Mermin dielectric function using an ab initio electron-ion collision frequency in comparison to computations using a linear-response time-dependent density functional theory (LR-TDDFT) framework for hydrogen and beryllium and investigate the dispersion of free-free and bound-free contributions to the scattering signal. A separate treatment of these contributions, where only the free-free part follows the Mermin dispersion, shows good agreement with LR-TDDFT results for ambient-density beryllium, but breaks down for highly compressed matter where the bound states become pressure ionized. LR-TDDFT is used to reanalyze x-ray Thomson scattering experiments on beryllium demonstrating strong deviations from the plasma conditions inferred with traditional analytic models at small scattering angles. © 2023 American Physical Society.

Research field(s)
Natural Sciences, Physics & Astronomy, Fluids & Plasmas

NOMIS Researcher(s)

Published in

June 13, 2023

CD8+ T cells provide host protection against pathogens by differentiating into distinct effector and memory cell subsets, but how chromatin is site-specifically remodeled during their differentiation is unclear. Due to its critical role in regulating chromatin and enhancer accessibility through its nucleosome remodeling activities, we investigated the role of the canonical BAF (cBAF) chromatin remodeling complex in antiviral CD8+ T cells during infection. ARID1A, a subunit of cBAF, was recruited early after activation and established de novo open chromatin regions (OCRs) at enhancers. Arid1a deficiency impaired the opening of thousands of activation-induced enhancers, leading to loss of TF binding, dysregulated proliferation and gene expression, and failure to undergo terminal effector differentiation. Although Arid1a was dispensable for circulating memory cell formation, tissue-resident memory (Trm) formation was strongly impaired. Thus, cBAF governs the enhancer landscape of activated CD8+ T cells that orchestrates TF recruitment and activity and the acquisition of specific effector and memory differentiation states. © 2023 Elsevier Inc.

Research field(s)
Health Sciences, Biomedical Research, Developmental Biology

NOMIS Researcher(s)

Published in

June 9, 2023

During political campaigns, candidates use rhetoric to advance competing visions and assessments of their country. Research reveals that the moral language used in this rhetoric can significantly influence citizens’ political attitudes and behaviors; however, the moral language actually used in the rhetoric of elites during political campaigns remains understudied. Using a data set of every tweet (N = 139, 412) published by 39 US presidential candidates during the 2016 and 2020 primary elections, we extracted moral language and constructed network models illustrating how candidates’ rhetoric is semantically connected. These network models yielded two key discoveries. First, we find that party affiliation clusters can be reconstructed solely based on the moral words used in candidates’ rhetoric. Within each party, popular moral values are expressed in highly similar ways, with Democrats emphasizing careful and just treatment of individuals and Republicans emphasizing in-group loyalty and respect for social hierarchies. Second, we illustrate the ways in which outsider candidates like Donald Trump can separate themselves during primaries by using moral rhetoric that differs from their parties’ common language. Our findings demonstrate the functional use of strategic moral rhetoric in a campaign context and show that unique methods of text network analysis are broadly applicable to the study of campaigns and social movements. © The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Research field(s)
Health Sciences, Clinical Medicine, Neurology & Neurosurgery

NOMIS Researcher(s)

June 6, 2023

Plasma tau phosphorylated at threonine 217 (P-tau217) and neurofilament light (NfL) have emerged as markers of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) pathology. Few studies have examined the role of sex in plasma biomarkers in sporadic AD, yielding mixed findings, and none in autosomal dominant AD. METHODS: We examined the effects of sex and age on plasma P-tau217 and NfL, and their association with cognitive performance in a cross-sectional study of 621 Presenilin-1 E280A mutation carriers (PSEN1) and non-carriers. RESULTS: As plasma P-tau217 levels increase, cognitively unimpaired female carriers showed better cognitive performance than cognitively unimpaired male carriers. Yet, as disease progresses, female carriers had a greater plasma NfL increase than male carriers. There were no sex differences in the association between age and plasma biomarkers among non-carriers. DISCUSSION: Our findings suggest that, among PSEN1 mutation carriers, females had a greater rate of neurodegeneration than males, yet it did not predict cognitive performance. HIGHLIGHTS: We examined sex differences in plasma P-tau217 and NfL in Presenilin-1 E280A (PSEN1) mutation carriers and non-carriers. Female carriers had a greater plasma NfL increase, but not P-tau217, than male carriers. As plasma P-tau217 levels increase, cognitively unimpaired female carriers showed better cognitive performance than cognitively unimpaired male carriers. The interaction effect of sex by plasma NfL levels did not predict cognition among carriers. © 2023 the Alzheimer’s Association.

Research field(s)
Health Sciences, Clinical Medicine, Neurology & Neurosurgery

NOMIS Researcher(s)

Published in

June 2, 2023

The β-hemoglobinopathies, such as sickle cell disease and β-thalassemia, are one of the most common genetic diseases worldwide and are caused by mutations affecting the structure or production of β-globin subunits in adult hemoglobin. Many gene editing efforts to treat the β-he-moglobinopathies attempt to correct β-globin mutations or increase γ-globin for fetal hemoglobin production. δ-globin, the subunit of adult hemoglobin A2, has high homology to β-globin and is already pan-cellularly expressed at low levels in adult red blood cells. However, upregulation of δ-globin is a relatively unexplored avenue to increase the amount of functional hemoglobin. Here, we use CRISPR-Cas9 to repair non-functional transcriptional elements in the endogenous promoter region of δ-globin to increase overall expression of adult hemoglobin 2 (HbA2). We find that insertion of a KLF1 site alone is insufficient to upregulate δ-globin. Instead, multiple transcription factor elements are necessary for robust upregulation of δ-globin from the endogenous locus. Promoter edited HUDEP-2 immortalized erythroid progenitor cells exhibit striking increases of HBD transcript, from less than 5% to over 20% of total β-like globins in clonal populations. Edited CD34 +hemato-poietic stem and progenitors (HSPCs) differentiated to primary human erythroblasts express up to 46% HBD in clonal populations. These findings add mechanistic insight to globin gene regulation and offer a new therapeutic avenue to treat β-hemoglobinopathies. © 2023, eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. All rights reserved.

Research field(s)
Health Sciences, Biomedical Research, Developmental Biology

NOMIS Researcher(s)

Published in

May 29, 2023

Under high pressures and temperatures, molecular systems with substantial polarization charges, such as ammonia and water, are predicted to form superionic phases and dense fluid states with dissociating molecules and high electrical conductivity. This behaviour potentially plays a role in explaining the origin of the multipolar magnetic fields of Uranus and Neptune, whose mantles are thought to result from a mixture of H2O, NH3 and CH4 ices. Determining the stability domain, melting curve and electrical conductivity of these superionic phases is therefore crucial for modelling planetary interiors and dynamos. Here we report the melting curve of superionic ammonia up to 300 GPa from laser-driven shock compression of pre-compressed samples and atomistic calculations. We show that ammonia melts at lower temperatures than water above 100 GPa and that fluid ammonia’s electrical conductivity exceeds that of water at conditions predicted by hot, super-adiabatic models for Uranus and Neptune, and enhances the conductivity in their fluid water-rich dynamo layers. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

Research field(s)
Natural Sciences, Physics & Astronomy, Fluids & Plasmas

NOMIS Researcher(s)

Published in

May 24, 2023

The ability to control the direction of scattered light is crucial to provide flexibility and scalability for a wide range of on-chip applications, such as integrated photonics, quantum information processing, and nonlinear optics. Tunable directionality can be achieved by applying external magnetic fields that modify optical selection rules, by using nonlinear effects, or interactions with vibrations. However, these approaches are less suitable to control microwave photon propagation inside integrated superconducting quantum devices. Here, we demonstrate on-demand tunable directional scattering based on two periodically modulated transmon qubits coupled to a transmission line at a fixed distance. By changing the relative phase between the modulation tones, we realize unidirectional forward or backward photon scattering. Such an in-situ switchable mirror represents a versatile tool for intra- and inter-chip microwave photonic processors. In the future, a lattice of qubits can be used to realize topological circuits that exhibit strong nonreciprocity or chirality. © 2023, The Author(s).

Research field(s)
Natural Sciences, Physics & Astronomy, Optics

NOMIS Researcher(s)

May 17, 2023

Predicting the future can bring enormous advantages. Across the ages, reliance on supernatural foreseeing was substituted by the opinion of expert forecasters, and now by collective intelligence approaches which draw on many non-expert forecasters. Yet all of these approaches continue to see individual forecasts as the key unit on which accuracy is determined. Here, we hypothesize that compromise forecasts, defined as the average prediction in a group, represent a better way to harness collective predictive intelligence. We test this by analysing 5 years of data from the Good Judgement Project and comparing the accuracy of individual versus compromise forecasts. Furthermore, given that an accurate forecast is only useful if timely, we analyze how the accuracy changes through time as the events approach. We found that compromise forecasts are more accurate, and that this advantage persists through time, though accuracy varies. Contrary to what was expected (i.e. a monotonous increase in forecasting accuracy as time passes), forecasting error for individuals and for team compromise starts its decline around two months prior to the event. Overall, we offer a method of aggregating forecasts to improve accuracy, which can be straightforwardly applied in noisy real-world settings. © 2023 The Authors.

Research field(s)
Applied Sciences, Psychology & Cognitive Sciences, Experimental Psychology