While fears of AI replacing jobs are widespread, a new NBER working paper led by NOMIS Awardee David Autor and colleagues reveals that the creation of novel occupations acts as a powerful economic defense. Their research demonstrates that this “new work” demands scarce, specialized expertise, allowing workers who transition into these roles to earn significantly higher pay. The findings point to the importance of creating entirely new occupations in an increasingly automated world.
For centuries, people have worried that rapid technological advances and machines will eventually eliminate the need for human labor. Yet, while automation certainly replaces specific tasks, the variety of human jobs has historically expanded rather than vanished. In fact, at least 18% of US workers today are employed in roles that did not even exist before 1970.
A new National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper, “What Makes New Work Different from More Work?” reveals that the creation of these entirely novel occupations acts as a powerful defense against job losses from automation. The researchers found that “new work” is fundamentally different from simply adding more jobs to existing fields. Instead, new work requires fresh, specialized human skills. Because these talents are initially rare, workers who step into these novel roles are rewarded with significantly higher pay. This financial advantage is especially strong for technology-driven jobs.
However, this boost in pay is not permanent. As these new skills become more common and widely taught, the financial rewards gradually fade. This means that the absolute “newest” jobs always pay more than older, more established roles. The authors also note that these new jobs do not appear out of nowhere; they are often sparked by specific events, such as major government funding or technological breakthroughs.
Ultimately, the research offers a critical lesson: To protect the value of human work in an automated future, society must continuously support the creation of new, skill-intensive jobs and train workers to fill them.
Read the NBER working paper: What makes new work different from more work?
